Prediction Markets
Parimutuel coin markets on your project's milestones. Deploy from a template, auto-resolve from data, enabled by Onsend on request.
Prediction markets let your community stake coins on what happens next: "Will we reach 5,000 members by July 1?" Members back an outcome; when the event resolves, the winning side splits the pool (minus a house cut) in proportion to their stakes. Markets are parimutuel (the pool is shared among winners, not fixed odds) and auto-resolve from your own platform data, so most markets settle themselves with no admin in the loop.
Enabled by Onsend on request
Prediction markets are an availability-gated feature, turned on per project by Onsend, not through a self-serve toggle. Until it's enabled for your project, the Predictions page shows a read-only notice that an Onsend operator must enable it first, and the configuration is locked. To bring prediction markets to your community, talk to your Onsend contact or email support@onsend.com.
Coins only, never XP, never rank
Markets are staked entirely in coins and require your coin economy to be enabled. Stakes and winnings move coins between members; they never touch XP, tiers or rank.
Configuring predictions
Once Onsend has enabled the feature, open Predictions in the admin sidebar (requires the Admin role). Flip Enable Predictions to take it live, then tune:
Admin → Predictions: live switch and market settings
slot: predictions.config| Setting | What it does |
|---|---|
| House cut (%) | The cut taken from the pool on resolution. |
| Max stake | The largest amount a member can stake on a single market. |
| Max simultaneous markets | How many markets can run at once. |
| Daily exposure limit | The most a member can put at risk across markets in a day. |
| Grace window (hours) | How long after the resolve time to wait for data before settling (or voiding if data never arrives). |
| Jackpot routing | Route the house cut into the shared jackpot pool instead of burning it. |
Your settings are capped by Onsend
As with PvP, each value is bounded by a ceiling Onsend sets with you. The dashboard rejects anything beyond a ceiling and names the field. You can set safer values, never higher ones.
Deploying a market
Markets are created from a template so the resolution criteria are unambiguous and machine-checkable. In the deploy form (Admin role required), pick a template and fill in the details.
Admin → Predictions → deploy a market from a template
slot: predictions.deploy| Template | Resolves YES when… | You provide |
|---|---|---|
| Member count by date | your community reaches ≥ a target member count by the resolve date | a threshold (member count) |
| Campaign completes by date | a specific campaign completes by the resolve date | the campaign |
Then set the Question (what members see), Closes at (when staking ends), and Resolves at (when the outcome is decided). Toggle Open immediately to launch it straight into staking, or leave it off to keep it as a draft you open later.
The market lifecycle
Draft → Open
A new market is a draft unless you opened it immediately. Open it for staking with Open for staking on the market card, and now members can back an outcome.
Open → Closed
At the Closes at time, staking ends automatically and the market is closed: no more bets, awaiting its result.
Closed → Resolved (automatic)
At the Resolves at time, Onsend reads your platform data and settles the market automatically, usually within about 5 minutes, paying the winning side. For the templated markets above, this needs no admin action at all.
Most markets resolve themselves
Because markets are built from data-backed templates, the common case is fully automatic: the market closes, the resolver reads the member count or campaign status, and winners are paid, all without you touching it.
When you do need to step in
Two manual controls exist on each market card for the exceptions:
- Void: refund every stake and cancel the market (you supply a reason). Use it if a market was set up wrong or can no longer resolve fairly.
- Manual resolution: if the resolver genuinely can't settle a market (bad or missing data), you can set the winner by hand. This is a deliberate two-admin action: one admin proposes the winning outcome, and a different admin must confirm it. The proposer can't confirm their own proposal. That's the integrity gate against a single person deciding a payout.
Manual resolution is the exception, not the routine
The market card surfaces the manual override only after a market is past its resolve time and still unsettled, with a note that data-resolvable markets settle automatically within ~5 minutes. Reach for it only when automatic resolution genuinely can't happen, and remember it takes two distinct admins.
Tips
- Trust the auto-resolve. Templated markets settle themselves; you generally only watch.
- Set the responsible-play limits. Max stake and daily exposure limit are your guardrails; set them before going live.
- Write a crisp question. Members stake on what the Question says, so make the YES condition unambiguous and match it to the template you chose.
- Void rather than force a bad resolve. If a market can't settle fairly, refunding everyone is cleaner than a contested manual decision.